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19 Mar

Tuesday March 20, 2012

by

Good Evening!

Awesome start to the week hitting a solid 9% on the DANG swing trade and after some disciplined day trades today I finished up just under $5,000 in profits which makes up for some of my undisciplined day trades last week. It’s important I point out how NEOM completely retraced Friday’s move and why we focus on 10% rinse and repeat, even if it means leaving some on the table from time to time. Was up about $6,000 at one point on PCX today but I’d really like to see this closer to $8 before I consider making any moves.

The markets advanced again today but not by much with the Dow +7, the Nasdaq +23 led by Apple and the S&P 500 +6. Tuesday’s economic calendar is light with housing starts for February at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Important Updates

By Sunday JasonBondPicks will be up and running as the home of premium content. While it’s not ready for memberships yet, I’m loading a lot of material at JasonBondPicks this week so you can get used to using the new site.

Feel free to ask questions about the watch list down below, I get to these nightly and it’s better than email because your question might help someone else too, plus it gives us a running log during the week. My job is to help with these trade ideas so please don’t be afraid to ask.

Thursday night we’ll have a webinar for all swing trade subscribers located at theStockMarketWatch (tSMW) and I’ll have detailed instructions for you soon. Moving forward this will be the location of our chat and webinars so let’s get used to it Thursday night. You’re membership to JasonBondPicks will be integrated with theStockMarketWatch chat this time around but for the time being you will need to create a username / password before Thursday’s webinar.

Open Trades

HL – 5,000 shares at $4.59 (current $4.65) swing long. I wouldn’t mind owning another 5,000 shares because I think the upside on this trade is $1 per share swing long. Not only is this chart at good technical support but if the market does pull silver is likely to go up and silver producers with it.

LYSCF – 20,000 shares at $1.30 (current $1.29) swing long. I won’t be shy to add size around $1.20 should it go there and plan to hold this one for the $1.70’s. I think the rare earth situation in China would spark a big move in LYSCF in the coming weeks if it plays out right.

PCX – 6,000 shares at $6.72 (current $7.21) swing long. Should be smooth sailing up to $8 at which point I’ll assess the trade. I’d be happy at $8 but think there’s a real chance this stock hits $9 to $10 so patience might be the name of the game here.

PZZI – 10,000 shares at $4.64 (current $4.64) swing long. This is also one of the best small cap stories we will see in a long time. If the company puts out some good news, which they are completely capable off, I think it could really get going.

TVIX – 5,000 shares at $18.59 (current $14.94) swing long. Just waiting for the VIX to climb. My goal is $24 to $30. Nice article on big banks buying volatility now. With today’s VIX I’d have figured TVIX to $12 but it appears shorts are bidding it up for us which could cause a bigger squeeze if the VIX can head higher soon.

Understanding the Watch List

My watch list approach is to stalk three technical patterns; oversold, continuation and breakouts while researching for excellent catalysts. Every Monday I’ll introduce new swing trade ideas for that week. The target market cap is between $50 million and $2 billion with a Beta of 1 or higher priced between $.25 and $10. Daily liquidity of is a must so $500,000 or more for consideration. My goal is to bid support and sell strength making 5-10% profit per swing with a tight stop loss when the trade goes against me. The ‘Swing’ time frame is 1-4 day holds and the ‘Swing long’ time frame is 1-20 day holds. There’s also a Nano cap category called ‘Penny’ featuring a basket of companies with market caps below $50 million, these are not sorted by the three technical patterns. If I initiate a trade from my master watch of about 100 companies it’ll come to you by chat, text and email in real time.

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Oversold – HOGS, CAST, HUSA, HDY, NSU

Tuesday – HOGS saw some buyers return today after it gaped down at the open, the new low to work off of here is $8.11 so if we get candle over candle Tuesday morning don’t be shocked if I move on this swing for $1 per share, they’ll probably be some shorts looking to get out but watch out for big sellers moving into strength if it does continue, added caution in a bear market. CAST candle over candle is in but the problem was the open which saw shares move from $4.45 to $4.71 in the first 10 minutes before it drifted lower and closed strong, I was honestly hoping to see it drift lower first to increase the trading range between the price and resistance at $4.92, I’m watching close but probably won’t enter based on risk reward. HUSA retraced about 10% which is to be expected after Friday’s squeeze off the bottom, now we watch for it to creep up and if it does candle over candle entry applies with Monday’s low at $6.30 acting as the stop, overall I was hoping to see it hold the high $6’s to illustrate strength. HDY would you please just move into the gap for crying out loud, tomorrow watch for a creeping action around $1.45 to suggest it wants to test $1.52 resistance this week and run into the gap, something tells me this trades above $1.52 this week so I’m watching close. NSU is textbook candle over candle but volume dried up today after the initial squeeze, let’s see what tomorrow brings because earnings are Wednesday after the close so maybe $3.75 to $4 before the call.

Monday – HOGS selling volume is slowing, but in a bear market this could still wash again, right now watch $8.27 for support. CAST should find support soon, right now $4.38 is the number we’re going to work with and assess daily. HUSA is a great example of why I put this list out, we were in this trade last week but got out because I feared another pull, which it did before jumped 30% Friday… it’s on the list because it’s still oversold and could head up another $1 to $2 per share from here before resistance. HDY into the gap could be coming soon, watch $1.52 resistance and volume for your trigger but this would only be a swing given all the bad news out of the company lately. NSU is a great chart off bottom, the low to watch is $3.21 and if that sticks a move to $3.75 or even $4.35 is possible.

Continuation – HERO, PWER, RENN, LOCM, XIDE

Tuesday – HERO trended lower across the day on sizable volume, if it holds above $5 or the 20 Moving Average watch for buyers on the bid and if they line up a move to $5.60 might be in store this week, this week or next though watch HERO to $6.50 soon, I think this pattern is leading to a breakout at $5.60 if the market stays strong. PWER didn’t do anything today so you’ll be shocked to here me say that’s great but it is, consider Friday’s big move and it held range today leads me to believe it could pop out of this pattern to $5.30 later in the week, I’d feel even better if it held above the 50 Moving Average but that’s a real tight stop and probably not reasonable for this trade. RENN is a trade I’ll be in soon and I’m watching daily to position with size on the bid, right now I continue to think just above $5 is where I want it swing long to $7. LOCM above the 50 Moving Average is key which is currently $2.61, hold that curl and if $2.79 falls I’m fairly confident $3.20 resistance will be tested. XIDE really looks like a big candle could develop this week so watch it close, the bid will be the tell here just before it goes so knowing your level II goes a long way and mark $3.23 as your gap down resistance.

Monday – HERO worked out of consolidation Friday and should be heading to $5.60 at which point it’s a possible breakout. PWER on the curl looks great with resistance at $5.30 and $6, support at $4.47. RENN is one of my better catalyst based plays right now, I figure buyout speculation and Facebook’s IPO could send shares to $7 again soon so keep it on watch, especially given their last round of solid earnings. LOCM is one of my favorite swing trades and I’ve neglected to work it recently off the $2.11 low back in January, this curl toward $2.80 makes me believe a move to $3.20 or even $4 is coming soon. XIDE is pushing into the gap and a break of $3.15 could lead to a solid swing move.

Breakout – BPZ, PWAV, REE, DVR, COCO

Tuesday – BPZ is itching to burst but the only question is will it have enough juice to sustain a move around $4.50 if it gets there, pattern is still in play and I think tomorrow will be the test, key volume near the high of day on a 5 day 1 minute chart as always on breakouts. PWAV is holding range and if it trades between $1.70 and $2.05 I’ll keep watching close for that monster move I think it’s capable of making up to $3 or $4. REE rejecting resistance around $6.50 and while I won’t play this one because I already have my rare earth play with LYSCF, I do believe it could trade around $8 and possibly higher swing long if China continues to cause problems here. DVR just keeps creeping higher and while I don’t trust this stock it wouldn’t stop me from trying to bag a quick 5 to 10% if it starts to breakout because there is no resistance until $5, light volume Monday suggests a pull in a bear market so tight stops on all breakout pending plays. COCO is one I moved on today in the day trade room but it didn’t quite take off, however I think tomorrow will be the day so I’m watching close as not only a swing to $5.20 but a solid day trade as well.

Monday – BPZ solid chart suggesting it wants the upper $4’s. PWAV sure looks like a move to $3 or even $4 is right around the corner. REE is a rare earth play for those who could not get in LYSCF, I think the China situation could take this to $8 or even $10 swing long. DVR just continues to sit in this uptrend but one of these days it’s going to jump and hold 20% and my guess is sooner than later, with clear skies to $5 you’d be wise to keep this one on watch. COCO must have some huge bids behind it and this pattern here suggest a move to at least $5.20 is coming.

Penny – LEE, PEIX, GSX, PLUG, MCZ

Tuesday – LEE tight accumulation continues here so watch for volume and a move to $1.27 and probably this week. PEIX continues to hold range but the more I look at it the more I think the recent move on huge volume will create a lot of resistance should it pop, on watch but probably not trade for me. GSX was the watch list winner up 14% at the close, see if it breaks $.38 and the door is open to the mid $.40’s. PLUG had no buyers today which says it’ll likely head lower in a bear market meaning this probably isn’t the bottom yet so $1.50 is my new target to bid, maybe even double bottom at $1.35 depending on how it washes out of this pattern when the overall market is down and the bears are roaming. MCZ nice move to $.62 but it couldn’t hold the run up about 20% from the recent low, $.62 is key resistance now and no trade for me since I was hoping for a $.50 bid, however I still like it to $1 swing long so I’m watching daily for my ideal entry since it’s a light volume play.

Monday – LEE talk about a consolidation pattern, NEOM’s intraday chart looked the same as LEE’s daily, a move to $1.20’s would test short term resistance and if it can climb then $1.73 would be a huge profit. PEIX moves in waves and it sure looks like another wave to $1.30’s or even $1.50’s is coming. GSX is not my favorite chart but if $.33 to $.37 goes it could see the mid $.40’s which would be a nice score from here. PLUG is a decent nano cap with some big clients, not saying I’d buy right here but watch close for a curl off that $1.70 bottom. MCZ I won’t chase because I want it closer to $.50 but the pattern is curling here and could pop to the $.60’s soon.

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2 Comments

  1. jim kasal

    I’ve been in ‘bondalerts’ since 1/23/12–spent the first month+ studying your style, etc., and watching the chatroom as much as possible–expecting to trade this past month, but my wife’s medical problems has made it not possible(I had to retire years early to care-take her, trying to bring in income thru the markets)–since I’ll now have the chance to get more involved again, I have the following questions. With this change back to your ‘jasonbondpicks’ website (of which I’m not familiar), I don’t see any mention of ‘bondalerts’ anymore– are you funneling me/others into ‘bonddaytrades’ or ‘bondswingtrades’ only, with their higher prices? I believe my subscription renews in a couple days(and social security doesn’t go too far these days), and I don’t understand your billing changeover from the ‘profit.ly’ site too well–will I be automatically changed over to your new/old system now or a month from now? Is the chatroom–which is vital to me–moving to ‘jasonbondpicks’ website and be unavailable at ‘profit.ly’ as I suspect? Thank you for any help you can give to a senior citizen, not overly computer-savvy, who thinks you will be very helpful for me/us. I too started out as a teacher/coach, before engineering for 30+ years, and have confidence in you/your service, but am obviously confused at the moment–with renewal to some unknown site looming near!

    Reply
    • Jason Bond

      Hi Jim and thanks for writing. Swing trading will definitely still exist, that’s my bread and butter, there just won’t be 3 categories anymore (BondAlerts, BondPremium, BondElite). I’ll have two products moving forward; BondSwingTrades and BondDayTrades. For you, BondSwingTrades will include everything that was in BondElite. Premium content will be on JasonBondPicks and we will have a chat as well. Your billing, if monthly, will stop at Profitly and we’ll ask you to sign up under our new plan. So say you paid March 7, 2012… we’ll issue you a username / password on the new site which will expire April 7, 2012 and then you can sign up again if you like. So to carry you over we’ll issue you a temporary username / password that will give you access to the content and chat. Hope that helps, email me if you need anything jason@jasonbondpicks.com

      Reply

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